NeWater - Report on the Adaptive DSS, Conceptual Approach and Application in Case

Techniques developed in this task are set to assist the transition to adaptive management practices, with uncertainty as a defining characteristic. The approach described here builds on conceptual modelling techniques such as cognitive mapping, causal loop diagrams and Bayesian belief networks to gain insight into possible adverse and unintended consequences of water management policies. In combination with decision methods (optimisation based on genetic algorithm and multiple criteria decision methods) these techniques allow to address uncertainties, uncover discrepancies in decision analysis process (e.g. completeness or redundancy of the model based on utility function) and generate policy options that trade-off between conflicting objectives.